Kellyanne Fitzpatrick is a Catholic attorney and pollster who also provides political commentary for CNN. She conducted a focus group of Catholics in Macomb County, Michigan, and was shocked to discover that only one woman had heard about the partial-birth abortion issue—and, incredibly, was misinformed about it.
The woman thought that since Clinton had vetoed the legislation (a negative act), he was acting against partial-birth abortions. Very likely the woman drew this conclusion after watching Clinton sign his veto while surrounded by self-identified “Catholic” women.
After the procedure was explained to the group, however, one woman cried while others expressed their disbelief that such abortions were legal and that Clinton supports them.
Fitzpatrick cited this focus group as evidence that many Catholic voters remain confused about partial-birth abortion, and said firmly that the Sunday morning sermon was the most effective educational tool for informing Catholics on this issue.
Turning to the makeup of the Catholic vote itself, Ms. Fitzpatrick noted five key points:
First, age matters. Baby boomer Catholics are equally split between being pro-life and pro-abortion, while older Catholics are more likely to be pro-life.
Second, church attendance matters—a lot. Fitzpatrick described it as “the deepest fault line” between liberal and conservative voting patterns among Catholics. She has found that Catholics who attend Mass weekly are more likely to vote for conservative candidates, and their votes will parallel those of evangelicals.
Third, the Catholic voter’s sex matters. Fitzpatrick has found that Catholic women (when compared with Catholic men) have a higher tendency to forgive President Clinton’s flaws. She characterized these women as feeling that it was too harsh to judge the president for his various transgressions, although she speculated that the president may hit a “critical scandal mass” soon and lose this bloc of voters.
Fourth, where the Catholic voter lives matters to the candidates. That’s because there are many Catholic voters in electoral battlegrounds such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. To win those states, either Bob Dole or Bill Clinton will have to capture the Catholic vote.
Fifth, Catholic voting patterns matter. In the congressional elections of 1994, Fitzpatrick found that for the first time over half of the Catholic vote went to Republicans (52 percent). She attributed this in part to the upward mobility of many Catholics, which, in her opinion, makes them more receptive to economic and tax issues, and Republican solutions.
Thus, according to Fitzpatrick, while Catholic voters are more likely to seek out a pro-life candidate, they are increasingly motivated by tax and economic policies in their voting calculus.
Soon we will witness a decisive test of these ideas as Catholics and millions of other Americans head for the polling booth. Some will vote their conscience, others their pocketbook, and still others a combination of both. The outcome will set the direction for this country into the next century.